<p><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　8月7日，博鳌房地产论坛，中国银行业协会首席经济学家巴曙松和中国社科院研究生院城乡建设经济系主任陈淮，出现了一次有意思的争论。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　陈淮：简单来说，不论从政策还是客观需要，以及企业自身转型、观望等很多方面来说，接下来都会是一个相对平稳的状态。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　巴曙松：稳是不是稳中有降？</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　陈淮：什么叫降？如果说没有原来的增速就叫降，如果这个意义上我就不辩论了，如果说有相对的增速，我认为还是会有所增长。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　巴曙松：明年要到16万亿元？</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　陈淮：这个数你就别问我了。现在股评家、金融专家喜欢用这样的语言，由于美联储降息、人民币贬值，股市昨天（8月6日）呈现大跌状态，今天（8月7日）有可能继续向下寻底，但也不排除报复性反弹的可能。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　巴曙松：连一向积极唱多的人都不敢轻易做乐观的预计，我们还是谨慎一点好。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　两位经济学大佬争论的背景，是2018年中国房地产市场前所未有的15万亿元规模新高，同时行业结构亦呈现出强者愈强趋势。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　近日，多位重量级经济学家、行业学者接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访，探讨15万亿元之后的房地产行业发展。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　</span><strong ="border-bottom:0px;border-left:0px;widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;margin:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;border-top:0px;border-right:0px;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;padding:0px;">　问题一：当下出现了一些房企破产现象，未来行业会怎么走？</strong><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　未来的地产分化会加剧</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　国家统计局原局长、阳光资产首席战略官邱晓华：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　中国房地产市场还有较大的刚需潜力，主要来自两方面：第一，城市化进程的推动，新增城镇人口生存型住房的刚性需求；第二，原有城市人口的改善型住房需求。我国的城市化水平还比较低，在这方面的潜力和余地也比较大。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　值得注意的是，通过近年的宏观调控，中国的房地产库存水平已经接近供求紧平衡界限，不少地方已经低于政策的库存水平。因此，目前的库存也需要进一步提升，库存推动增长的因素也还是值得期待的。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　黄金期虽然结束，但平稳期才刚刚开始。未来的地产分化会加剧，主要会由人口流动、经济活力和生态环境三个因素来决定。从一个更长的趋势来看，调控虽然严厉，政策有底线。重组与调整在加快，分化会成为常态，这是我们需要去注意把握的。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　房地产市场到了兼并重组的时候</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　中国经济体制改革研究会副会长、国民经济研究所所长樊纲：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　房地产市场曾有一段过热盲目扩张的时期，但目前整个行业都已谨慎，同时政府不用地产来刺激经济的思路已经很明确了。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　当下市场出现了一些企业破产的现象，我认为适当的调整兼并重组是非常正常的，这是一个好的好事，而不是坏事。国外市场几家巨头独大的现状是一次一次经济波动后兼并重组的结果。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　我认为，目前中国房地产市场也到了一个兼并重组，提高产业集中度，使产业结构更加健康的时候。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　这20年也还是黄金20年</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　旭辉集团董事长林中：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　我觉得下一个20年行业会进入一个新的阶段。我把中国房地产走过的这种历程分了三段：第一段从1978年改革开放到1997年中国房地产萌芽期；第二段从1998年房地产市场化开始一直到2017年，这20年是中国房地产的高速增长期；从2018年到2037年这20年，中国房地产可能会进入一个平稳发展期。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　如果用高速增长期的观点来看现在的平稳增长期，可能认为不够黄金，但我们认为今后20年内，中国改革开放水平持续会提高，人民的收入水平也会持续提高，城市化进程也将不断推进。所以到时候回来看，这20年对很多房地产企业来说也还是黄金20年。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　中国房地产行业还处于发展的青春期</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　绿城房地产建设管理集团董事长兼总经理李军：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　中国房地产很多时候受政策影响，与经济形势也相关联，所以我们对这个行业的判断现在很难说。但我认为，中国房地产行业实际上是在快速的成长过程当中，还是个青春期的孩子。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　青春期之后进入成熟期并且不会立刻死亡，会存在很长的平稳期，甚至可能进一步进入老年期这么个阶段。依照长期的角度看，中国房地产行业还处于一个发展的青春期阶段，还没进入稳定和成熟期，并且到成熟期后也将是个很长的过程。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><strong ="border-bottom:0px;border-left:0px;widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;margin:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;border-top:0px;border-right:0px;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;padding:0px;">　　问题二：2019年行业发展降速，房企依然“规模为王”？<br /></strong><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　要重视近年来出台的城市群政策</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　樊纲：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　城市群能够使大中小城市各种经济要素互补，通过交通基础设施公共服务等一体化，使人口便利流动，令区域内大中小城市，甚至是城市和农村相互联结，形成协同发展，进而这些城市群能吸收更多人口，把中国的城镇城市化推向新的阶段。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　发展城市群意味着大中小城市实现土地互补，房地产供给互补，供给需求也是互补。我称其为中国城市化2.0版本。在这一过程中，过去房价暴涨的城市有可能房价趋稳，房价低洼的城市也有可能上涨。这对房地产的发展非常重要，一定程度上会令市场重新洗牌，也蕴含着大量的商机。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　要选择有质量的增长，不能牺牲财务安全性</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　林中：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　要实现有质量的增长，一定要先把质量放在前面，包括产品和服务的质量；其次应注重财务质量，不能牺牲财务安全性，要实现有利润、有回款的销售，有现金的利润。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　从企业角度来说，就是增长率、负债率和利润率的平衡，所以我们不会为了追求一个增长率去牺牲负债率和利润率。规模是一个结果而不是一个目的，房地产的目的是通过做好的产品和服务，在为客户创造价值的同时，把握住行业机会。&nbsp;（本版图片由每经记者张建摄）&nbsp;TOP50以上房企发展会有所降速</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　泰禾集团副总裁全忠：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　从这几年的发展情况看，房地产行业出现了强者恒强，这是个趋势。总的来看，中国的房地产市场发展一定是规模占优势。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　不过从2019年开始，我个人认为现在的TOP50以上企业，发展速度和增长率会比前几年下降。为了保持增长，企业还需使用杠杆，负债率依旧高位，集中度会进一步增加。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　一些“小而美”公司定位可能比较特殊，只服务于某一部分人，但中国房地产市场的容量足够让这些中小企业有足够的生存空间。这些中小企业应当采取针对性的产品和服务来满足部分目标客户需求，并且仍会有生存空间。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　开发商要学会等</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　恒隆集团董事长陈启宗：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　我希望中国的房地产商，特别是住房房地产商，能够回归理性，不要再在销售额这件事上去比较。希望这个行业能够越来越理性，开发商在借贷上量力而为，从今以后就回归理性、量力而为。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　房地产商必须学一个功课，就是要等。我是很能等的，我不做事的时候什么都不做，每天的运营有同事们去做，我做决策的我就要会等。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　去年，恒隆在杭州拿了一块地，从2004年开始，我等了14年，这14年里基本上大的商业土地我都看过，但我深信一件事，该等的时候你就要等。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><strong ="border-bottom:0px;border-left:0px;widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;margin:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;border-top:0px;border-right:0px;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;padding:0px;">　　问题三：15万亿之后，房企应寻求多元化，还是继续聚焦主业？</strong><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　多元化是企业发展的一种自然选择</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　泰禾集团副总裁全忠：</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><span ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;display:inline !important;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;float:none;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px">　　一般默认房地产主业是以住宅为主的房地产，但随着土地供应的特点或变化，实际上每个企业都面临着除了住宅以外的事，做商业、长租公寓这不应当被视为多元化，而文旅、教育、养老等我认为属于房地产相关多元化。</span><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /><br ="widows:2;text-transform:none;font-:normal;text-indent:0px;font-family:&#39;microsoft yahei&#39;, yahei, simhei, hei, arial, tahoma, arial, sans-serif;orphans:2;letter-spacing:normal;color:#333333;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;word-spacing:0px;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px" /&g